When apparent 'facts' do not represent the truth
There is a pattern of the way stories about crime in the Caribbean region are promoted and promulgated. There is an 'inference' of a potential impact without this being stated directly, but it is enough to leave a negative impression.
This may be an example of "fake news" and it is the kind of thing that can propagate false information to an otherwise un-educated reader. These are news stories that appear to represent a fact-based or evidence-based portrayal but this is not actually true. In this case there may even be a mis-representation based on a method of using only part of information from a source known as 'cherry-picking'. The method is meant to express an opinion of the crime situation in the Caribbean but it is partial or incomplete. It represents only one side of the story. It is therefore not reliable but most readers would accept the representation without questioning or challenging it. Most readers will not make any attempt to corroborate the story or seek out counter-arguments. Therefore, for most readers, this is the impression that has the most impact.
Safety is probably the number one influencer of potential visitors decision to travel to a certain place. So when stories appear in the media that would advise potential visitors to stay away because of high crime, these potential visitors sit up and take notice. It is not known to what extent visitors will change their plans but this will vary depending on factors such as what the individual knows about the destination, or possibly about other destinations, whether the location is an all-inclusive, a cruise, whether the person knows the location and its social climate, and so on ... However, news agencies play on the fragility of human perceptions with respect to a 'perceived' risk, as opposed to a 'real threat'.
Very often, headlines appear that leave an impression on potential visitors whether one reads the underlying story or not. Also, travel advisories pick up the news stories and their methods to discuss current destination safety are influenced by this 'information'.
How this works:
Algorithms are being used so that when such keywords as 'crime' and 'Caribbean' appear, the story associated is captured automatically, exactly how Google News captures articles from world news agencies. This is how 'News alerts' work and media outlets use them. Other news sources likely are using Google News search and capture tools as their main source of news stories.
A story appears which seems to promulgate a certain impression of a potential impact. This representation is only partial but has great sway over people's impression of the Caribbean region.
The story is then captured and widely broadcast by other media outlets.
These other media outlets have an interest in the story because the story represents an opportunity for them.
Sometimes the opportunity is use the impression of a potential impact to dissuade potential visitors from travelling to the Caribbean region because, the article delivers the impression that the Caribbean region may be unsafe.
In some cases these media outlets may be situated in regions which are directly competitive.
It is not inconceivable that competitors are directly responsible for promotion and distribution of a story.
So, there seems to be a high potential for media outlets to take notice of stories about crime in the Caribbean region and to propagate these stories widely.
Also, local media capture and re-distribute these stories in their own outlets and this is also potentially disruptive and destructive to tourism.
For example, on May 17, 2017, Google News has the following item appear:
High crime rate a shadow over Caribbean tourism: study - Jakarta Post
May 17, 2017, 1:01 AM
Description: High crime rate a shadow over Caribbean tourism: study The study out Tuesday by the Interamerican Development Bank is based on a survey of 3,000 crime victims in each of five countries: the Bahamas, Trinidad and Tobago, Barbados, Jamaica and ...
This story is a verbatim re-iteration based on a news item in "Agence France-Presse". The original article is no longer available.
So, clicking on the link to the AFP article gets: "The requested page at 'https://www.afp.com/en/news/826/high-crime-rate-shadow-over-caribbean-tourism-study' could not be found". That is: article is no longer found at AFP. Readers who do venture past the first results would give up at this point. (See below: Follow Up Search)
However it is viewable using Google's cached version. Cached versions do not stay up very long as Google refreshes its searches quite often, particularly for news stories.
In this case, the news articles refer to news release about an IDB study:
High crime rates in the Caribbean require new evidence-based policy approaches - IDB study
The News Release from IDB appears on May 16, 2017 and refers to the specific study:
"Restoring paradise in the Caribbean: combatting violence with numbers"
Readers can 'download the study'.
Related articles: (generated by Google based on an algorithm based on keywords in the main story)
The secret in paradise: Violence mars Caribbean life - Miami Herald
Barbados' rate of violent crime 'the exception' in Caribbean - Nation News
Description: AN INTER-AMERICAN Development Bank (IDB) study on crime says Barbados was an exception when it came to rising violent crime in the Caribbean.
Related articles. BEHIND THE HEADLINES: Caribbean... Crime in region burdening economies... Jamaica ...
Note: Nation News is a news outlet in Barbados. The first paragraph of the article states "AN INTER-AMERICAN Development Bank (IDB) study on crime says Barbados was an exception when it came to rising violent crime in the Caribbean". So, this article has presented a useful counter argument.
The article also contains a link to a follow up article: "CRIME AND VIOLENCE IN BARBADOS: UNDERSTANDING THE PROBLEM FOR A BETTER RESPONSE" The article makes no reference to the impact on perceptions of crime by tourists.
Click on << all 4 news articles >> - the link below the article - gets the following results, included in this coverage:
The secret in paradise: Violence mars Caribbean life
Bradenton Herald, 2017
Description: Caribbean countries laud themselves on offering idyllic settings where sandy beaches, calming calypso and a laid-back lifestyle beckon. But behind the happy-go-lucky image, the region also harbors a darker side: violent crime and a tolerance for ...
The Bradenton Herald is a newspaper in Bradenton FL.
Crime in the Caribbean is driving tourists away
Famagusta Gazette @ archive.org, 2017
Description: CRIME in the Caribbean is driving tourists away – and the violent crime rate there is higher than in Latin America or Africa. The Interamerican Development Bank – in a report issued this week – says it compiled a study based on a survey of 3,000 crime ...
The Famagusta Gazette is in Cyprus.
Readers see this and are understandably put off by these stories. Most people are very unlikely to challenge what they read in news sources as most will accept the news source as credible or reliable. Most people do not question these things.
The Truth:
The story refers to a specific study done by Interamerican Development Bank, however virtually no-one will ever actually look at the original study.
If one does look at the study, right away, there is a directly opposing representation of the crime situation. The title of the study is: "Restoring Paradise in the Caribbean: Combatting Violence With Numbers". So, right off the bat it is clear that the news item does not represent the study accurately.
The authors do not shy away from the fact that crime is a serious problem for Caribbean nations. However, the study is clearly taking an approach towards solutions. Again, this does not come across in the news portrayal.
These quotes are directly from the study:
In the introduction, entitled: "Combatting Crime and Restoring Paradise", the following:
"This report tackles the following questions. What are the size and dimensions of the crime problem? How is the Caribbean similar to or different from the rest of the world? Who are the victims? What are the drivers of crime, and hence the areas that provide the best opportunities for intervention? What are the societal costs?"
Further, Chapter 12 addresses the impacts of crime on tourism, among other things.
"Tourism is of particular concern because of the key role it plays in many Caribbean economies. The few studies that examine the relationship between crime and tourism in the region find that it mainly involves property crime that tends to be directed at tourists (De Albuquerque and McElroy 1999). While the odds of being victimized as a tourist in the Caribbean are low (especially for violent crime), perceptions of crime— driven by media coverage in the sending country rather than actual dangers—do affect tourism (King 2003). Alleyne and Boxill (2003) found that crime has discouraged tourism to Jamaica, particularly from European countries. They posit that the negative effect of crime has been mitigated by an increased number of all-inclusive hotels where tourists never need to venture into the streets. However, these hotels do not foster significant backward linkages to the rest of the local economy" . (pg 198)
"Additionally, this chapter finds that reducing fear (making people feel safer) should also be considered as a common goal among public safety and security initiatives. However, since fear of crime is not highly correlated with actual crime, it should not be assumed that policies to reduce crime will also reduce fear. Dedicated policies to increase confidence in law enforcement and the justice system and decrease misinformation about crime can help. Reducing such misinformation could be achieved by providing the public with reliable information about crime, including information about the risk of victimization for different criminal offences, the likelihood of error in these estimates, and the nature of victimization events". (pg 205) (See Note 1 Below)
None of this appears in the news stories. Therefore, the news stories are clearly a representation of only part of what the original study has laid out. Further the news stories broadcast an erroneous and incomplete representation of the main trust of the study, which again, is directed at finding solutions.
The news article does state: "The victims are mainly 18 to 25 year-olds who live in poor neighborhoods far from the tourist resorts" but the main impression couched in the headline is what readers are more likely to remember.
The broad repercussion is a very negative impression which is perceived by potential visitors as having a high risk for personal injury. However, the truth is that a very low number of tourists are actually ever attacked. This not only applies to the Caribbean but is true internationally. There are more than a billion tourist visits internationally every year. How often is there a story about a tourist actually being a victim of a crime? Very rare indeed. And why target the Caribbean, this region has no higher visitor threat than generally.
Furthermore, the vast majority of violent crimes occur in urban areas where drugs, guns and gangs come together. The average tourist never even comes any where close to these areas and is therefore almost never under threat from these crimes. So, the portrayal of crime as a threat to tourists is mysterious and controversial.
Follow Up Search
If a follow up search for this story is executed, generates the following result:
Search for: "High crime rate a shadow over Caribbean tourism": study "Agence France-Presse"
Note: both terms are phrases in quotes.
Generates 7 results
Also, if a follow up search @ AFP for: High crime rate a shadow over Caribbean tourism: study is executed, the term is NOT found. The article at AFP has been taken down. This happened within a day of the issue of the story. However, there are still many associated stories available at AFP dating back up to several years.
In spite of this, the article was captured and IS found at other news sources such as:
Yahoo! News (link is forward/redirect from: Twee.at). Yahoo News is a news aggregator, similar to Google News, and is read widely. News aggregators are not publishers, though many readers would not be aware of the distinction.
If a follow up search for this story is executed, removing the "Agence France-Presse" generates the following result:
Search for: "High crime rate a shadow over Caribbean tourism": study
Note: the main term is a phrase in quotes.
Generates: About 2950 results
A further follow up search for: High crime rate a shadow over Caribbean tourism: study
Generates: About 990 results
Sometimes this news impacts on travel distribution networks such as travel agents or tour operators:
Example: TravelWireNews
A further follow up search for: "High crime rate a shadow over Caribbean tourism": study - click on the NEWS tab:
High crime rate a shadow over Caribbean tourism - Seychelles News Agency
From all of this, we can see that a single news item has become a torrent of wide distribution and also within a very short time frame, in this case less than half a day. Most of the re-distribution of the article appears to come from news outlets in areas or regions which may be competing with Caribbean destinations for tourists. However, local news outlets are also propagating the story with potential detrimental impact. With the exception of the Nation News article there does not appear to be any attempt to balance the reporting, which is very difficult to comprehend.
Almost no-one does these kind of follow-up searches. Almost no reader will make any attempt to verify any news story. Most readers accept the story, or more importantly the headline, as fact and makes no attempt to dispute, challenge or corroborate the evidence. The story has delivered an impression of a situation and this is what remains in people's minds.
So, how do you fight this?
This approach includes delivering the truth about what is actually being said:
- Crime almost never impacts tourists and there is very little actual evidence of tourists being harmed directly.
- Crime is isolated to certain groups or areas within the destination and other regions also have potential crime.
Start by awareness. Use the same tools to capture news items. Then promote off-setting and competing arguments to counter the discussion and to widen it. Tell the truth with the impetus towards a balanced and fair representation of the situation. Give potential visitors reasons to know that the story represents only one point of view and that there are mitigating factors.
Again, the article in Nation News from Barbados appears virtually immediately and is a very positive step towards presenting balanced reporting. However, no mention of impact on tourism is being included.
Obviously, the thrust of the title of the main study is towards finding ways to combat crime perceptions in order to move to a newer, more positive portrayal of the situation. But this is not the direction that news agencies seem to be interested in promoting.
Interestingly, as of May 18, 2017, the original study has been downloaded ONLY 113 times. So, this is enough to conclude that the thousands of readers of the stories, and also other reporters in the media, are not even remotely interested in the source material upon which the stories are based.
It is noteworthy that the world's most referenced news sources such as The New York Times and The BBC do not republish these articles and so far have made no reference to the IDB study.
The description of the study at the IDB states: "While citizen security has become an ever-increasing concern for many Caribbean countries, the magnitude of the problem has not been matched with an equally robust response in terms of research. This volume analyses new data collected in household and business victimization surveys. These surveys allow us to understand crime from a primary source – the victims themselves. As such, this study goes beyond much of the existing literature, which relies primarily on police data. It contributes new information to our understanding of crime patterns, victim profiles, drivers of particular types of crime, and directions for crime reduction in the region".
However, news reporters and/or news agencies have virtually ignored this. In my view, this is unacceptable and is not an accurate portrayal of the actual situation on the ground. Also, while no guarantee can ever be made, when promoting the Caribbean to travel agents and tour operators it is particularly important to present the argument that visitors are not generally targeted or under any significant threat. This is done in destination quite effectively, but this is only relevant after the visitor has touched down. But visitors put off will likely never touch down.
Note 1: For example, almost no attention is being paid to:
Chapter 12: The Effects of Crime on Economic Growth, Tourism, Fear, Emigration, and Life Satisfaction - pg 197
Heather Sutton, Inder Ruprah, and Camilo Pecha
Section Four—Policy Implications and Recommendations
Chapter 13: What the Caribbean Is Doing to Reduce Crime Compared to the Evidence of What Works Internationally - pg 211
Heather Sutton and Luisa Godinez
Chapter 14: Conclusions and Recommendations - pg 251
Heather Sutton